Florida Primary Poll: Sunshine State Democrats Continue to Strongly Support Joe Biden
Former President Donald Trump has significantly expanded his lead in the latest Florida primary poll conducted by BIG DATA POLL for August. The Sunshine State Poll conducted in the final days of August finds Trump holds a commanding lead over sitting Governor Ron DeSantis, 56.8% to 18.1%, up from the 52.5% to 32.6% margin in June.
Crosstabs can be viewed via links in the included graphics or the methodology statement below. Individual interview details can be viewed by clicking on each available latitude and longitude point indicating support for each candidate on the map below.
“The most significant change from our last survey stems from a big shift in vote preference among white voters,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris, said. “While Trump has been dominating in Miami and the Gold Coast with overwhelming support among Hispanic voters, the shift among white voters has allowed him to blow the Panhandle and Orlando/Atlantic Coast regions wide open.”
Trump now leads DeSantis 57.1% to 21.9% among white voters, up from 50.6% to 34.7%. He leads among Hispanics 63.5% to 9.3%, also up from 62.8% to 24.9%. Crosstabs of the previous Florida primary poll for the 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination can be viewed here. Hispanics are forecasted to represent just over 1/5 voters of the Republican primary electorate in 2024, up from 16% in 2016.
“The former president has relegated support for the current governor to the state capital and surrounding area.”
The national and state frontrunner leads in each of the six regions defined below. Primary voters in the solidly Republican Panhandle currently prefer Trump 57.6% to 17.6%,; North Central Florida 54.1% to 17.6%; Orlando/Atlantic Coast 57.2% to 19.0%, a significant change from 43.2% to 42.5%; the Tampa Bay Area 47.4% to 22.1%; Southwest Gulf/Mid-Florida 65.1% to 13.6%; and the Miami/Gold Coast region 56.3% to 17.9%.
The Sunshine State also continues to be one of incumbent President Joe Biden’s strongest states in his bid for renomination. He remains well ahead of Robert Kennedy Jr., 67.1% to 7.6%, down slightly from 68.8% to 6.7%. Marianne Williamson also rose marginally from 2.7% in June to 4.1% in August. The percentage of Democratic primary voters choosing “someone else” also rose a single point from 8.4% to 9.4%. Another 12.8% remain undecided, more than in the Republican primary field, but down slightly from 13.4% in June.
Methodology
BIG DATA POLL interviewed 1,419 registered voters in Florida from August 27 to August 28, 2023, via mixed-mode to include 1,316 likely voters, who were screened by self-reported likelihood to vote and vote history. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Likely primary voters were screened for eligibility by registration and intent due to Florida’s closed primary system. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education, and region. The overall sampling error is +/- 2.7% at a 95% confidence interval. The sampling errors for the Republican and Democratic Presidential Nominations are +/- 3.8% and +/- 4.1% at a 95% confidence interval, respectively. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
Worth noting, the national exit polls conducted by Edison Research combine North Central Florida (10%) and the Panhandle (8%) into North/Panhandle. BIG DATA POLL has long separated the two regions to ensure more accurate representation due to higher participation rates in higher population centers and metro areas.
Regional Definitions
- Panhandle: Escambia, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Taylor, Wakulla, Washington
- North Central Florida: Alachua, Bradford, Citrus, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Hernando, Lafayette, Lake, Levy, Marion, Putnam, Sumter, Suwannee, Union, Baker, Clay, Duval, Flagler, Nassau, St. Johns, Volusia
- Orlando / Atlantic Coast: Brevard, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, Indian River, Martin, Okeechobee, Palm Beach, St. Lucie
- Tampa Bay Area: Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough
- Southeast / Gold Coast: Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach
- Southwest Gulf Mid-Florida: Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hendry, Lee, Sarasota, Monroe, Hardee, Highlands, Manatee, Polk
