Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a fight for the lead in the popular vote in September. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Public Polling Project for September 2024.
The former president leads marginally in two of the three ballot scenarios tested and the current vice president leads marginally in one of three. While the national popular vote has tightened since the exit of both Joe Biden and Robert F. Kennedy, these margins are widely believed to be a precarious, even dire position for the Democratic nominee in the Electoral College.
“These results indicate a significant change as it relates to undecideds juxtaposed to when Joe Biden was still in the race,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris noted. “Donald Trump initially led and held his lead when undecided voters were still breaking for the sitting president.”
“Now, undecideds are leaning decidedly to Trump.”
That’s evident by President Trump holding a lead over Vice President Harris in the crucial Midwest. Further, he continues to garner support from roughly 2 in 10 black voters, fueled in large part by increased support from black men from both 2016 and 2020.
Democrats continue to hold a slight lead over Republicans on the Generic Ballot, though advantage has also now narrowed to a statistically insignificant. When initially asked, 43.4% indicated they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, while 42.8% say they’ll vote for the Republican candidate. With leaners, Democrats lead Republicans 46.0% to 44.9%, and 9.1% chose someone else.
Methodology
The Public Polling Project conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 3,047 registered voters nationwide from August 31 to September 3, 2024. Likely voters were screened by self-reported likelihood to vote and vote history. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 48 hours to complete the interview. Interview details can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on a locator pin. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education, and region. The overall sampling error is ±1.8% at a 95% confidence interval. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
Regional and Census Division Representations
- New England: 4.9%
- Middle Atlantic: 13.1%
- East North Central: 15.5%
- West North Central: 6.0%
- South Atlantic: 22.5%
- East South Central: 6.3%
- West South Central: 11.2%
- Mountain: 7.1%
- Pacific: 13.5%
