Rick Scott leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for U.S. Senate
The Sunshine State Poll for March 2024 finds Donald Trump has increased his already commanding lead over Joe Biden in Florida. The former president leads the current president by roughly 13 points across all scenarios in the first test by BIG DATA POLL in the new year and since the two men clinched their respective nominations.
In a hypothetical matchup, Trump initially leads Biden 50.1% to 36.7%, a widening of the 45.0% to 36.7% margin in the prior survey back in August 2023. Overall, 5.3% remain undecided and 7.9% chose someone else. With leaners, Trump leads 51.4% to 38.0% with 10.6% choosing someone else.
In a three-way hypothetical matchup, Trump leads 49.2% to 35.7%, with independent Robert F. Kennedy earning 6.7%, 4.4% still choosing someone else and another 4.0% remaining undecided. When leaned, voters still back Trump 49.9% to 36.4%, with Kennedy at 7.0% and 6.6% opting for someone else.
In a six-way hypothetical, Trump leads Biden 47.9% to 34.5%, with 7.4% choosing Kennedy, 1.5% choosing independent Cornel West, 1.3% for Libertarian Lars Mapstead and 0.9% for Green Party candidate Jill Stein. With leaners, Trump leads 49.5% to 36.3% for Biden, 8.6% for Kennedy, 2.2% for West. Mapstead and Stein each draw 1.7%.
While 40.3% approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president, 58.0% disapprove to include 45.7% who strongly disapprove. Only 20.4% strong approve of the job he’s doing, giving him an Intensity Index of -25.3%. Governor Ron DeSantis fares better, though he’s falling dramatically since his run for the Republican nomination. His approval stands at 50.4% and 45.7% disapprove, to include 34.7% who strongly disapprove.
Incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott leads Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 46.9% to 35.6%, though a significant 17.5% still remain undecided. Similarly, Republicans lead Democrats 46.5% to 36.6% on the Generic Ballot, with 3.3% choosing someone else and 13.6% undecided.
BIG DATA POLL HOLDS UNPARALLELED TRACK RECORD IN FLORIDA
In 2016, the final poll conducted by BIG DATA POLL found Trump leading Hillary Clinton by 1.6%, just 0.2% from the actual result. In 2018, BIG DATA POLL was one of only two polling firms to correctly project victories for then-Governor and now-Senator Rick Scott, R-Fla., over then-incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson, D-Fla., as well as now-Governor Ron DeSantis over Democrat Andrew Gillum. In 2020, the Sunshine State Poll conducted in September found Trump leading Biden by just under 2.6%, less than a point off the 3.3% final margin.
Methodology
The Sunshine State Poll conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 1,378 registered voters statewide via mixed-mode from March 8 to March 11, 2024. Likely voters were screened by self-reported likelihood to vote and vote history. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 48 hours to complete the interview. Interview details can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on a locator pin. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education, and region. The overall sampling error is +/- 2.7% at a 95% confidence interval. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
Regional Definitions
Region and Region Detail identified in the interactive crosstabs are defined by regrouping counties included in the subgroup definitions listed below:
- Panhandle: Bay, Calhoun, Escambia, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, Washington
- Big Bend: Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Taylor, Wakulla
- North: Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Columbia, Duval, Flagler, Gilchrist, Levy, Marion, Nassau, Putnam, St. Johns, Suwannee, Union
- Orlando / Atlantic Coast: Brevard, Indian River, Lake, Martin, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, St. Lucie, Sumter, Volusia
- Tampa Bay Area: Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas
- Gulf Coast / Mid-Florida: Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Lee, Manatee, Monroe, Okeechobee, Polk, Sarasota
- Miami / Gold Coast: Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach
Please note: The North / Panhandle region is defined by regrouping the counties included in the subgroup definitions for Panhandle, Big Bend, and North listed below:
