Nearly 7 in 10 Trump Supporters Say ‘I Cannot Be Persuaded to Change My Mind’
The Hawkeye State Poll finds Donald Trump leads Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley in the Iowa Caucus 51.3% to 16.8% and 12.8%, respectively. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL less than one year out from the general election as part of the Rust Belt Poll in the “Big Six” that includes Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy came in at 5.4%. No other candidate breaks 5%. Only 1.2% chose “someone else” and 8.4% remain “undecided”.
Perhaps the most significant finding highlights how solid support for President Trump remains as other candidates drop out of the race for the Republican nomination. Nearly 7 in 10 caucus-goers supporting him say they cannot be persuaded to change their mind at the caucus, up from just over 6 in 10 in August.
That compares to just 3 in 10 for Governor DeSantis and only 2 in 10 for Ambassador Haley.
“While the latest results represent a slight uptick in support for President Trump, his supporters are dug in like Alabama ticks,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris said. “Of all the caucus-goers who say they cannot be persuaded to change their mind, nearly 80% are supporters of the former president.”
“Iowa is marginally lower than the other states surveyed in the Rust Belt Poll, but this rising firmness in support has been consistent across the region.”
The latest results also represent a slight decline for Governor DeSantis, down from 19.2% in August. Meanwhile, Ambassador Haley rose slightly more than 10 points from just 2.3% in August. However, it remains unclear whether her current support has more growth potential in the Hawkeye State given how poorly she performs among self-identified conservatives.
The former president dominates across all education demographics save for caucus-goers with advanced degrees. He enjoys the support of roughly 6 in 10 (59.6%) with a high school degree or less and (55.6%) with some college or a 2-year degree. Caucus-goers with a 4-year degree also back President Trump over Governors DeSantis and Haley, 47.2% to 20.2% and 15.7%, respectively.
President Trump also leads in every region, to include the vote-rich Eastern Cities (53.4%) that include Dubuque, Davenport, Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. While the Des Moines Area gives more than a 20-point advantage to the frontrunner, it is the region most supportive of Governor DeSantis at 22.1%. The remainder of the state overwhelmingly backs President Trump over Governor DeSantis and Ambassador Haley, 53.3% to 15.7% and 12.3%, respectively.
Methodology
BIG DATA POLL interviewed 468 registered voters (validated) who reported to be Republican caucus-goers from November 17 to November 21, 2023. The overall survey sampling error for the general election is ±3.5% and sampling errors for the presidential caucuses are ±4.9%. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Likely caucus-goers were screened for eligibility by registration and intent due to Iowa’s closed primary system. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education and income, geography and region. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
