Trump Dominates Biden on the Issues, Inflation Remains Top Concern
Former President Donald Trump opened up a large lead over President Joe Biden, according to the national BIG DATA POLL conducted in February. Significantly, support for the 45th President continues to surpass the critical 50% threshold for the second survey in a row when undecided voters are forced to lean toward the candidates.
In a two-way hypothetical matchup, Trump initially leads Biden 46.1% to 39.5%, a widening of the 43.7% to 41.7% margin in the prior survey. Overall, 14.3% remain undecided, essentially unchanged from 14.6%. In December, BIG DATA POLL measured support for President Trump above 50% for the first time ever, including leaners or not.
"Last week, President Joe Biden suffered through what was arguably the worst day of his presidency," BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris said. "While I'm open to the possibility an equally awful week contributed to these results, voters simply trust the former president more than him to handle the issues and the job."
White voters prefer former President Trump 51.8% to 35.7%, while black voters favor President Biden by a narrowing 59.4% to 21.7% margin. Hispanic voters continue to trend to the former president, backing the current president by only about 7 points before leaning, 46.8% to 40.1%. The nonwhite vote shift has been a source of debate and division this entire cycle, but non-college whites have also shifted back to President Trump considerably, 60.3% to 27.7%. When leaned, the 68.0% to 32.0% margin exceeds even 2020, resembling a dynamic far closer to 2016.
Depending on ballot scenario, former President Trump leads current President Biden by a rounded margin ranging from a low of 6 points (6.6%) to a high of 8 points (8.2%). The latter's initial vote share before leaners ranges from a low of 42.6% to a high of 46.1%, while the former ranges from a low 36.4% to a high of 39.5% before leaners.
Robert F. Kennedy, who previously exited the 2024 Democratic Nomination to run as an independent candidate, received a high of roughly 12 percent (11.7%) in the six-way matchup, the most crowded field we tested. No other potential independent or third-party candidate cracks double-digits.
In February, the percentage of voters who said the country was headed in the right direction fell again to 24.% after ticking slightly higher to 27.8%, and the the percentage who say it's on the wrong track rose to 64.6% after falling slightly to 61.6% the prior month. Direction of Country Index came in at -40.5, a deterioration from -33.4 the most negative reading since May, 2023. (Right Direction / Wrong Track Trend: Direction of Country)
President Biden's approval ratings are at their worst levels since May, 2022. Only 39.4% approve of the way he's handling his job as president, down from 42.4% and including just 16.0% who strongly approve. Further, 57.5% disapprove to include 42.8% who strongly disapprove. (Presidential Approval Ratings Trend: Joe Biden)
Meanwhile, Republican candidates hold a slight advantage on the Generic Ballot for the U.S. House, leading Democratic candidates 42.9% to 39.8%. Slightly less this month chose someone else (5.9%) and 11.4% remain undecided. (Generic Ballot Trend: U.S. House)
Methodology
BIG DATA POLL interviewed 3,005 registered voters nationwide from February 12-14, 2024 via mixed-mode to include 2,772 likely voters screened by self-reported likelihood to vote and vote history. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Likely primary voters were further screened for eligibility by registration and intent based on open and closed primary systems by state to include 1,389 Republican primary voters and 1,241 Democratic primary voters. Results were weighted for gender, age, race and ethnicity, education, geography and region. The overall sampling error is +/- 1.8% at a 95% confidence interval. The sampling errors for the Republican and Democratic Presidential Nominations are +/- 2.7% and +/- 2.7% at a 95% confidence interval, respectively. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
