Support for Trump in the Republican Primary Now Exceeds Support for Biden in the Democratic Primary
Donald Trump has consolidated support among 2024 Republican primary voters, according to the latest national survey conducted by BIG DATA POLL for February. The former president is dominating former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley by 60.6%, or 75.4% to 14.8%. Only 4.9% chose “someone else” and another 4.9% remain “undecided”.
“I’ve said it all cycle and I’ll say it again. This is and has always been the least competitive primary for a presidential nomination in modern memory,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris, said. “Several commentators and pundits persisted on making the argument that an alternative candidate could compete with the frontrunner if they waited out a once-fractured field until it was one-on-one.”
“Well, it’s one-on-one now. President Trump is trouncing the alternative candidate.”
The 2024 Republican Nomination field winnowed down after the Iowa Caucuses on January 15. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy immediately announced he was suspending his campaign the night of the caucuses. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign ten days after coming in a distant second place behind the 45th President. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie dropped out before New Hampshire, a development thought to have helped Ambassador Haley.
Mr. Ramaswamy endorsed the frontrunner immediately and appeared with him in the Granite State. Governor DeSantis ultimately endorsed him, as well. Since the prior national survey conducted by BIG DATA POLL, President Trump’s lead grew by 13.4%, widening from 52.9%. Ambassador Haley gained just 5 points from 9.8%. (2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Trend)
While President Trump’s margin over Ambassador Haley among Republican primary voters is slightly less (1.7%) than President Joe Biden’s margin over Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn., among Democratic primary voters, Republicans are more consolidated behind the former president than Democrats are behind the current. President Biden leads Rep. Phillips by 62.3%, or 69.5% to 7.2%. But sizable percentages of Democratic voters still want someone else (10.4%) and even more remain undecided (13.0%).
Methodology
BIG DATA POLL interviewed 3,005 registered voters nationwide from February 12-14, 2024 via mixed-mode to include 2,772 likely voters screened by self-reported likelihood to vote and vote history. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Likely primary voters were further screened for eligibility by registration and intent based on open and closed primary systems by state to include 1,389 Republican primary voters and 1,241 Democratic primary voters.
Results were weighted for gender, age, race and ethnicity, education, geography and region. The overall sampling error is +/- 1.8% at a 95% confidence interval. The sampling errors for the Republican and Democratic Presidential Nominations are +/- 2.7% and +/- 2.7% at a 95% confidence interval, respectively. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
