North Star State Swings Significantly from 2020
Joe Biden and Donald Trump are locked in a statistical dead heat across all hypotheticals in the blue-leaning battleground state of Minnesota, according to the North Star State Poll for November, 2023. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL less than one year out as part of the Rust Belt Poll in the “Big Six” that includes Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Worth noting, voters who participated in the 2020 presidential election told BIG DATA POLL they voted for Mr. Biden by 52.2% to 42.7%, very close to the actual results (52.6% to 45.4%) in Minnesota. In a hypothetical 3-way matchup with a generic third party candidate, Mr. Biden now only leads slightly with this group by 1.5%. However, among non-2020 voters, Mr. Trump leads by a much larger 18.6% margin, though the group is still largely undecided.
The final North Star State Poll released just days before the 2020 U.S. presidential election by BIG DATA POLL found Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump by 10 points, 50.9% to 40.9%. It was conducted as part of the Election 2020 Public Polling Project.
Among registered voters who were also given a generic third party option, Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden by roughly 1 point, 37.8% to 36.6%, with 12.4% choosing a generic third party and 10.4% undecided. Among likely voters, the two are essentially tied at 39% with a generic third party option taking 12.7% and 8.9% remaining undecided. Only 0.8% say they would not vote.
“Minnesota has a long history of third party candidates achieving ballot access, as does several other states in the Big Six we surveyed for this study,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris, said. “In 2020, there were a total of nine candidates on the ballot for president.”
“However, this time, it’s far less clear whether it’s hurting President Biden or President Trump.”
In the hypothetical matchup including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Mr. Biden leads by less than a point, an insignificant 35.3% to just 34.9% margin, with RFK notching 9.0% and another 7.8% opting for another generic third party candidate. With Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent candidate Cornel West also on the ballot, Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden 36.1% to 34.6%, with 8.4% choosing RFK, 2.1% for Ms. Stein, and 1.9% for Mr. West.
Presidential Nominations
The former president holds a massive 48.3-point lead over the 2024 Republican primary field for the presidential nomination at 60.4%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley trail significantly with just 11.0% to 7.1%, respectively. No other candidate breaks 5%. Only 0.6% chose someone else and 11.6% remain undecided.
On the Democratic side, President Biden is dominating the field over Rep. Dean Phillips, D. Minn., and Marianne Williamson, 59.7% to 8.5% and 2.5%, respectively. However, it is notable that 9.0% chose “someone else” and a significant 20.2% were still undecided.
“President Biden is far ahead in the primary as we’ve seen across the Big Six,” Mr. Baris added. “However, we have also measured a lack of firmness in his support in each state, with large numbers choosing someone other than the incumbent.
“This should be very concerning for Democrats less than a year out from the general election.”
Methodology
The North Star State Poll interviewed 854 registered voters (validated) from November 18 to November 23, 2023.The overall survey sampling error is ±3.4% and sampling errors for the presidential primaries are ±4.5%. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Likely primary voters were screened for eligibility by registration and intent due to closed primary system. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education, and region. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
