Trump Maintains Lead Over Biden in Pennsylvania
Donald Trump slightly expanded his lead over Joe Biden in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to the Keystone State Poll for April 2024. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Rust Belt Poll, a periodic survey of the “Big Six” that includes Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In a hypothetical matchup, Trump leads Biden initially 45.7% to 40.3%, with 7.9% choosing someone else and another 6.1% undecided. When adding undecideds who are asked to lean toward a candidate, the former president leads the current president 47.0% to 41.3%, while 11.6% chose someone else.
That’s up slightly from the 3.5% lead Trump held over Biden in the state in the previous Rust Belt Poll conducted before Christmas.
However, when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy is added to the ballot, Trump leads 44.5% to 38.8% for Biden. RFK garners 7.1%, 3.9% chose someone else and 5.7% are undecided. With leaners, Trump’s lead is statistically unchanged at 45.4% to 39.7% for Biden and 8.0% for RFK. Still, 6.9% chose someone else.
Speaking of which, the race tightens with another candidate added to the field. Dr. Jill Stein would only draw 1.5% support among voters in Pennsylvania if she were to get on the ballot, but Trump’s lead closes somewhat to 44.4% to 40.0% for Biden. Interestingly, Stein doesn’t dram from the former president, but RFK does take a slightly higher share at 7.5%. With leaners, Trump maintains the lead with 45.7% to 41.6% for Biden, while RFK inches higher to 9.3% and Stein to 3.3%.
The president’s approval rating is largely unchanged from the prior survey. In April, 42.5% now approve of the job Biden is doing as president, though only 19.6% strongly approve. That compares to 53.9% who disapprove, to include roughly 4 in 10 (39.6%) who strongly disapprove.
Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro is faring better, enjoying a 53.6% approval rating juxtaposed to only 33.1% who disapprove and 13.3% who are undecided. That includes 25.4% who strongly approve and only 14.7% who strongly disapprove. Even more than 1 in 4 (27.7%) Republicans approve of the job he is doing as governor.
Democrats lead Republicans on the Generic Ballot for the U.S. House of Representatives. If the elections were held today, 43.4% would vote for the Democratic candidate and 39.1% would vote for the Republican candidate. However, a sizable 14.5% remain undecided and 3.1% say they would vote for someone else.
Methodology
The Rust Belt Poll conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 1,305 registered voters statewide in Pennsylvania from March 26 to March 30, 2024. Likely voters were screened by self-reported likelihood to vote and vote history. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 48 hours to complete the interview. Interview details can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on a locator pin. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education, and region. The overall sampling error is ±2.6% at a 95% confidence interval. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
Regional Definitions By County
The Keystone Battleground notably adds two additional regions not explicitly defined in traditional exit polls for Pennsylvania, and they are weighted accordingly: Dutch and Allegheny. This is done to ensure better representation in rural and suburban areas due to higher participation rates in higher population centers and more metro areas. It’s important to note that part of the Dutch Region includes what is traditionally referred to as the Philadelphia Suburbs.
- Philadelphia: Philadelphia
- Southeast: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery
- Northeast: Carbon, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Luzerne, Monroe, Northampton, Pike, Schuylkill, Susquehanna, Wayne, Wyoming
- Dutch: Adams, Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry, York
- Central: Armstrong, Bedford, Blair, Bradford, Cameron, Centre, Clarion, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Elk, Forest, Fulton, Huntingdon, Indiana, Jefferson, Juniata, Lycoming, McKean, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland, Potter, Snyder, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, Venango, Warren
- West: Beaver, Butler, Cambria, Crawford, Erie, Fayette, Greene, Lawrence, Mercer, Somerset, Washington, Westmoreland
- Allegheny: Allegheny
