Trump, Biden Dominate Primary Challengers in the Buckeye State
Donald Trump leads Joe Biden and a generic third party candidate in the red-tinted battleground state of Ohio by 13 points, according to the Buckeye State Poll for November, 2023. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL less than one year out as part of the Rust Belt Poll in the “Big Six” that includes Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Worth noting, voters who participated in the 2020 presidential election told BIG DATA POLL they voted for Mr. Trump by 53.9% to 42.6%, very close to the actual results (53.3% to 45.3%) in Ohio. In a hypothetical 3-way matchup with a generic third party candidate, Mr. Trump now leads with this group by 12.3%. However, among non-2020 voters, he leads by an even larger 19.4%.
“We’re intentionally gauging support for generic third party candidates in the Rust Belt Poll to compare to named candidate because several of the Big Six have more obtainable ballot access requirements,” BIG DATA POLL Director Rich Baris, said. “The current levels of support for both candidates do suggest there’s an appetite for a third option, but the potential options didn’t fare all that well.”
“That being said, the results are in line with the rest of the states surveyed across the Big Six and would also suggest President Biden is suffering from significant base fracture. He would have a much harder time consolidating his vote than former President Trump.”
In the 3-way matchup, Trump leads Biden 43.2% to just 29.6%, with 13.8% opting for a third party candidate. Another 3.7% said they would not vote and 9.7% were undecided. Interestingly, 18.4% of Black voters indicate they would back Mr. Trump, as did 41.3% of Hispanic voters, both representing a stark increase in support since 2020. White voters back Mr. Trump by 20 points, nearly identical to his margin in 2020.
In a hypothetical matchup with independent Robert F. Kennedy and a generic third party candidate, Trump leads by 14 points, 42.2% to 27.7% for Biden and 8.8% for Kennedy. Another 8.3% still choose a generic third party candidate and 9.8% remain undecided. When independent Cornel West and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are added to the matchup, Trump leads Biden 42.8% to 27.8%, with Kennedy at 9.5%, Stein at 1.2% and West at 1.0%. Interestingly, the percentage of undecided voters rises to 13.7%.
“We’ve seen this similar effect all over the Rust Belt,” Mr. Baris added. “There comes a point at which President Trump’s level of support simply refuses to fall any further, indicating a rock solid floor of support.”
Presidential Nominations
The former president holds a massive 48.3-point lead over the 2024 Republican primary field for the presidential nomination at 59.8%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley trail significantly with, 11.5% to 8.7%, respectively. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy rounds out the top four candidates at 6.8%.
No other candidate breaks 5%. Only 0.5% chose someone else and 8.0% remain undecided.
Non-college voters back Trump 74.3% to 8.7% for DeSantis, while voters with some college or a 2-year degree break 59.9% to 10.5%. A slight majority of voters with 4-year degrees also favor the former president, 50.4% to 14.4% for Ambassador Haley, as do a plurality of voters (41.1%) with advanced degrees.
On the Democratic side, President Biden is dominating the field over Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips, D. Minn., 62.0% to 6.0% and 2.8%, respectively. However, it is notable that 9.4% chose “someone else” and a significant 19.8% were still undecided.
Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Completely Collapses
Only 13.6% of Buckeye State voters strongly approve of the job the president is doing in office, while 45.0% strongly disapprove. His combined approval rating in Ohio stands at just 35.9% juxtaposed to an extremely negative combined disapproval rating of 59.6%. The Cleveland Area and Columbus Area, the only two regions to back the president in 2020, now also view his job performance negatively.
Only 40.5% of voters in the Cleveland Area, the most Democratic of all the state’s regions, approve of the job he’s doing as president, while 57.5% disapprove. In the Columbus Area, it’s 41.7% approve compared to 54.0% who disapprove.
Among non-white voters in Ohio, only 28.2% of Black voters, 12.0% of Hispanic voters, and 16.4% of Asian/other voters strongly approve. Just 11.5% of White voters strongly approve, while 50.4% strongly disapprove.
Methodology
BIG DATA POLL interviewed 1,352 registered voters (validated) from November 16 to November 19, 2023, to include 648 Republican primary voters and 523 Democratic primary voters. The overall survey sampling error is ±2.7% and sampling errors for the presidential primaries are ±3.9%. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Likely primary voters were screened for eligibility and intent due to the open primary system. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education and income, geography and region. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
