In Close Race, Trump Edges Out Biden in Michigan
Donald Trump holds a slight lead over Joe Biden in the critical battleground state of Michigan, according to the Wolverine State Poll for April 2024. The survey was conducted by BIG DATA POLL as part of the Rust Belt Poll, a periodic survey of the “Big Six” that includes Iowa, Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In a hypothetical matchup, Trump leads Biden initially 43.5% to 42.3%, with 8.1% choosing someone else and another 6.1% undecided. When adding undecideds who are asked to which candidate they would lean, the former president edges out the current president 44.9% to 43.8%, while 11.2% chose someone else.
Unlike the results of Pennsylvania, which was the first of the Big Six to be released on Wednesday, Biden has marginally closed the gap from the previous Rust Belt Poll conducted before Christmas.
When independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy is added to the ballot, Trump leads 43.8% to 40.3% for Biden. RFK garners 7.4%, 3.8% chose someone else and 4.8% are undecided. With leaners, Trump’s lead is statistically unchanged at 44.5% to 41.2% for Biden and 7.8% for RFK. Still, 6.5% chose someone else.
Dr. Jill Stein would only draw 1.4% support among voters when added to the ballot. However, unlike RFK, the Green Party is now certain to appear on the ballot in Michigan. Still, Trump leads Biden 43.2% to 40.0% in that scenario. Interestingly, as we saw with this ballot test scenario in Pennsylvania, Kennedy garners a slightly higher vote share at 9.6%, while 5.6% undecided. With leaners, Trump maintains a slight lead with 43.9% to 42.2%. RFK inches higher to break double-digits at 11.3% and Stein ticks up to 2.6%.
In a standard two-way head-to-head matchup, Trump initially leads Biden 45.8% to 41.2%. When the 13.0% who were initially undecided are asked to lean, Trump comes out on top by 3 points, or 51.5% to 48.5%.
The president’s approval rating marginally improved from the prior survey, but remains underwater. In April, 43.8% now approve of the job Biden is doing as president, though only 20.0% strongly approve. That compares to 54.2% who disapprove, to include more than 4 in 10 (42.3%) who strongly disapprove.
Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer is far more popular than the president, enjoying a 54.0% approval rating juxtaposed to 42.5% who disapprove and 3.4% who are undecided. That includes 34.5% who strongly approve and 28.3% who strongly disapprove. Even nearly 1 in 4 (23.5%) Republicans approve of the job she is doing as governor.
Also interesting and contrary to the results in Pennsylvania, Republicans hold a slight edge on the Generic Ballot, though a significant 11.5% remain undecided. When asked for which party candidate voters intend to vote in their congressional district, Republicans hold a marginal lead over Democrats, 43.8% to 41.5%.
Methodology
The Rust Belt Poll conducted by BIG DATA POLL interviewed 1,218 registered voters statewide in Michigan from March 26 to March 30, 2024. Likely voters were screened by self-reported likelihood to vote and vote history. Interviews conducted online are sourced through Lucid (CINT) and live-agent phone interviews including P2P SMS and text-to-online are sourced from the Aristotle National Voter File Database. Participants who opted for text-to-online were given 48 hours to complete the interview. Interview details can be reviewed by hovering and clicking on a locator pin. Results were weighted for gender, age, race, education, and region. The overall sampling error is ±2.6% at a 95% confidence interval. It is important to note that sampling errors for subgroups are higher. All BIG DATA POLL publicly conducted surveys are crowdfunded via the Public Polling Project, supplemented if necessary by BIG DATA POLL and are NOT funded by or affiliated with any candidate, campaign, committee, or political entity. Full and interactive crosstabs can be viewed on MarketSight.
Regional Definitions By County
- Wayne: Wayne
- Oakland / Macomb: Macomb, Oakland
- Southeast / East Central: Clinton, Genesee, Hillsdale, Ingham, Jackson, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston, Monroe, Sanilac, Shiawassee, St. Clair, Tuscola, Washtenaw
- Southwest: Allegan, Berrie, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Eaton, Ionia, Kalamazoo, Kent, Ottawa, St. Joseph, Van Buren, Barry
- North Central / U.P. Alcona, Alger, Alpena, Arenac, Bay, Benzie, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Clare, Crawford, Delta, Emmet, Gladwin, Gogebic, Grand Traverse, Gratiot, Houghton, Huron, Iosco, Iron, Isabella, Kalkaska, Keweenaw, Lake, Leelanau, Mackinac, Manistee, Antrim, Marquette, Mason, Mecosta, Menominee, Midland, Missaukee, Montcalm, Montmorency, Muskegon, Newaygo, Oceana, Ogemaw, Oscoda, Otsego, Presque Isle, Roscommon, Saginaw, Baraga, Schoolcraft, Wexford
